
Retail Hope
British retail sales fell at a much slower pace than expected in February but retailers are shedding staff at a record pace, a survey showed last Tuesday. The Confederation of British Industry's distributive trades survey balance rose to -25, its highest since June 2008, from -47 in January and a series low of -55 in December. The CBI said supermarkets and footwear and leather stores were faring better than most. However, the CBI said conditions were still tough for many retailers who were slashing jobs at the fastest pace since the series began. The quarterly reported employment balance fell to a series low of -49 from -16 in November. The expected employment balance for the next three months was also a series low at -45. Britain's economy shrank an unrevised 1.5 percent in the last three months of 2008, surprising analysts who had expected a small downward revision but third quarter figures were altered to show a bigger drop. Last Wednesday's official second estimate of gross domestic product confirmed Britain entered a steep recession at the end of last year, which economists expect to persist for some time. Households cut spending at the swiftest rate since 1991, manufacturers saw their worst quarter since 1974 when Britain was forced into a three-day week due to energy shortages and the dominant services sector hasn't done as badly since 1979. Third quarter output was revised down to show a 0.7 percent drop on the quarter, from a 0.6 percent fall reported before. That left growth for 2008 at just 0.7 percent, the weakest rate since 1992 and a marked deceleration from the 3 percent expansion in 2007. All focus this week will be on Thursday when the Bank of England meet and announce their decision on UK interest rates. It is widely expected that another cut of up to 0.5% will be forthcoming bringing rates down to just 0.5%. Today we have the release of the January Net Mortgage Lending, New Mortgage approvals and the BOE Consumer Credit figures. The figures should show some signs that the banks are starting to lend again giving the housing market a much-needed push. Later on this week the Halifax will release the figures for house prices, which will still show a steady decline and is expected to do so for some time yet.
