
Data Shock!
Soaring food prices and a weaker pound pushed British inflation well above its 2 percent target last month, but the Bank of England said price growth would still slow sharply as the economic downturn saps demand. Government bonds dived and sterling shot up last Tuesday after the Office for National Statistics said consumer price inflation rose to 3.2 percent in February, despite a recession that has pushed the Bank of England to adopt unprecedented measures to boost growth. Inflation was much stronger than even the highest forecast and forced King to explain himself to the government, as required by the Bank of England’s mandate when inflation deviates from its 2 percent target by more than a percentage point. The weakness of sterling was probably to blame, King said. Food and non-alcoholic drink prices were the single biggest driver of the inflation jump. Other sectors depending on imported goods also had an upward effect. King said policymakers would have to see whether this meant that the upside risks to their forecasts were now coming true, but this still did not mean there was much danger of inflation being meaningfully above target in the medium-term. "With a 28 percent fall in the exchange rate over 18 months, we clearly expected a good part of that to feed through the domestic price level," King told a parliamentary committee. Analysts agreed predicting inflation will head significantly below target in the coming months. The RPI measure of inflation, on which many wage deals are based and includes housing costs and mortgage interest payments, fell to zero in February, the lowest rate since 1960, and analysts expect this to be negative for months ahead. Last Thursday’s British retail sales data showed sales plunged in February, posting the lowest annual growth rate in more than a decade, as heavy snowy and economic gloom kept consumers away from the shops. With unemployment soaring, wage growth falling and credit still scarce, analysts said retailers could face even tougher times ahead. Sales volumes fell 1.9 percent in February, nearly five times the fall expected by analysts, bringing to an end a run of surprisingly robust figures that had shown sales holding up well over Christmas. The pound fell half a cent against the dollar on the figures. The fall in sales in February was broad-based and the statistics office said unusually snowy weather had been a major factor. Britain suffered its most widespread snowfall last month since 1991, bringing transport networks to a standstill and forcing several out-of-town shopping centres to close
